RESILIENCE: Strengthening the efficiency and security of energy networks
The primary aim of the RESILIENCE prototype is to secure the provision of energy to society. It will facilitate energy network management, planning and adaptation decisions to be taken with more robust knowledge of the future variability of climate, which in turn can lead to a safer, more efficient and therefore cost-effective operation of the grid.The highest priority for the energy network operators is to maintain a balanced system to avoid black-outs. However, the rapidly evolving energy system is in an increasingly vulnerable position due to the growth of highly variable wind power contributing to the total energy supply, and unusual temperatures affecting demand. Therefore, the two key climate variables that have been chosen will be temperature and wind speed as a function of energy demand and supply respectively. Wind speed forecasts will be translated to wind power using the industry-standard approach based on the wind profile power law.Forecast time-scales from 1 month to 10 years will be researched, to cover decision-making process relevant to both medium-term operational and longer-term planning periods.The North Sea and its neighbouring countries to the south (UK, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark) will be the target regions, chosen due to the development planned for extremely large capacities of offshore wind power, that will include a new grid network system to be designed and connected to land in NW Europe (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_Offshore_Grid).This prototype is inspired by a citation from the Manager of the Operational Centre for Production and Markets of Electricité De France (EDF, EUPORIAS partner), which says “during winter, a 1ºC error in the daily temperature forecast [in France] translates into a difference in electricity demand that is equivalent to the electricity consumption of the second and third largest French cities.” and goes on to say “as wind power production is expected to increase greatly over the coming years, the electricity system will be subject to variations of several thousands of MW depending on wind intensity” (Troccoli et al., 2010).